Comments on: Thought Experiment: Choose a Number http://cow.neondragon.net/index.php/thought-experiment-choose-a-number Helping you to get the most out of modern technology and communications since 2004. Wed, 08 Feb 2012 16:48:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Cow’s Blog » Blog Archive » Thought Experiment II http://cow.neondragon.net/index.php/thought-experiment-choose-a-number/comment-page-1#comment-2337 Cow’s Blog » Blog Archive » Thought Experiment II Sat, 01 Mar 2008 22:34:08 +0000 http://cow.neondragon.net/index.php/thought-experiment-choose-a-number#comment-2337 [...] recently posted a thought experiment where you had to try and find 2/3rd of the average [...] [...] recently posted a thought experiment where you had to try and find 2/3rd of the average [...]

]]> By: Andrew http://cow.neondragon.net/index.php/thought-experiment-choose-a-number/comment-page-1#comment-2329 Andrew Thu, 28 Feb 2008 21:46:38 +0000 http://cow.neondragon.net/index.php/thought-experiment-choose-a-number#comment-2329 You have a thousand people, so there might be more weight on one number over another (as in, 2 people selecting "25" and 1 person selecting "24" makes 25 the more popular number). A simple arithmetic mean doesn't incorporate the weights of numbers like this. However... if you included these weights in the "uniformly distributed" statement... Then I'd have to go with shaun. Although, I would think that *most* people would select 50 as the average, and thus answer 33. Thus, the *true* answer would be 22 (not zero- because we're talking about an average here, not an episolon neighborhood). You have a thousand people, so there might be more weight on one number over another (as in, 2 people selecting “25″ and 1 person selecting “24″ makes 25 the more popular number). A simple arithmetic mean doesn’t incorporate the weights of numbers like this.

However… if you included these weights in the “uniformly distributed” statement… Then I’d have to go with shaun. Although, I would think that *most* people would select 50 as the average, and thus answer 33. Thus, the *true* answer would be 22 (not zero- because we’re talking about an average here, not an episolon neighborhood).

]]> By: Tim http://cow.neondragon.net/index.php/thought-experiment-choose-a-number/comment-page-1#comment-2325 Tim Wed, 27 Feb 2008 23:46:23 +0000 http://cow.neondragon.net/index.php/thought-experiment-choose-a-number#comment-2325 I wouldn't expect the average to be anything like 50. Last time I read anything about that, in the case of people choosing from 1..10, most people settled on 7, so there's a fair chance of scaling-up or related phenomena. Goodness knows what effect talking about taking 2/3rds of something will have on the results. And of course, the question whether 1000 people is enough for a selection out of 100 to be valid is beyond my statistics... What else could be wrong? :) I wouldn’t expect the average to be anything like 50. Last time I read anything about that, in the case of people choosing from 1..10, most people settled on 7, so there’s a fair chance of scaling-up or related phenomena. Goodness knows what effect talking about taking 2/3rds of something will have on the results.
And of course, the question whether 1000 people is enough for a selection out of 100 to be valid is beyond my statistics…

What else could be wrong? :)

]]> By: shaun http://cow.neondragon.net/index.php/thought-experiment-choose-a-number/comment-page-1#comment-2324 shaun Wed, 27 Feb 2008 23:38:42 +0000 http://cow.neondragon.net/index.php/thought-experiment-choose-a-number#comment-2324 You'd want to choose 2/3 of 33, because everyone would assume you wanted 2/3 of 50. But then you'd have to choose 2/3 of 2/3 of 33 etc. So the best answer would probably be 0. You’d want to choose 2/3 of 33, because everyone would assume you wanted 2/3 of 50. But then you’d have to choose 2/3 of 2/3 of 33 etc. So the best answer would probably be 0.

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